6  Best decks

7 Archetype

This analysis attempts to use regression to determine the decks with the best performance inside archetype or base archetype.

A binomial regression is initially trained on a set of decks. In order to be included in this analysis the archetype must be present at least 50 times in the dataset.

In order to be considered a card must be included at least 25 times in either the main deck or the sideboards, one or the other being considered separately. In models comparing the number of copies of each card, when a number of copies is less than 25 it is grouped with an adjacent number of copies. For example, a card that is present 32 times in 1 copy 200 times in 2 copies, 15 times in 3 copies and 47 times in 4 copies would lead to the following result 1/2 : 232 and 3/4 : 62. The formulation 2-4 indicates that the numbers of copies 2, 3 and 4 have been grouped together. Be careful, this part leads to results that I’m not really sure of. The interpretation of the regression coefficients seems really questionable, particularly in relation to the collinearity problem and the very large number of variables with sometimes small sample sizes. I would therefore encourage you to be very careful.

A total of 6 quasibinomial regression models are created using the wins and losses of each deck:.

  • Two models using the deck as a whole (maindeck and sideboard)

    • Comparing for each card presence +1 vs absence 0.

    • Comparing each card count with a sufficient sample size 0 vs 1 vs 3-4 for example

  • Four separate models 2 for maindeck and 2 for sideboard

    • Comparing for each card presence +1 vs absence 0

    • Comparing each card count with a sufficient sample size 0 vs 1 vs 3-4 for example

These different models are then used to determine the 7 complete decks (maindeck and sideboard) with the highest probability of victory for each archetype (weeks are expressed in 2 last digits years.weeks of the year).

As well as the 7 maindecks and 7 sideboards with the highest probability of victory are presented for each archetype.Warning: this second part can lead to inconsistent combinations. It seemed useful if you want explore the maindecks and sides separately.

Table shows the top7 decks:

  • Firstly base cards (present in all decklist).

  • Variables cards are present as card name average number of cards[minimum; maximum number of cards]number of base cards* (if this card is also in base cards)

7.1 All Data Model best deck prediction

7.1.1 Angels

7.1.1.1 Global deck models

7.1.1.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.1.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.1.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.2 B Demon : Demons

7.1.2.1 Global deck models

7.1.2.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.2.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.2.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.3 Bring To Light : Niv To Light

7.1.3.1 Global deck models

7.1.3.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.3.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.3.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.4 Control

7.1.4.1 Global deck models

7.1.4.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.4.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.4.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.5 Enigmatic Incarnation

7.1.5.1 Global deck models

7.1.5.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.5.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.5.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.6 Ensoul

7.1.6.1 Global deck models

7.1.6.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.6.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.6.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.7 Food

7.1.7.1 Global deck models

7.1.7.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.7.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.7.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.8 Greasefang

7.1.8.1 Global deck models

7.1.8.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.8.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.8.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.9 GW Company

7.1.9.1 Global deck models

7.1.9.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.9.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.9.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.10 Hammer Time

7.1.10.1 Global deck models

7.1.10.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.10.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.10.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.11 Humans

7.1.11.1 Global deck models

7.1.11.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.11.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.11.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.12 Lotus Strings

7.1.12.1 Global deck models

7.1.12.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.12.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.12.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.13 Mono Green Devotion

7.1.13.1 Global deck models

7.1.13.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.13.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.13.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.14 Mono Red Aggro

7.1.14.1 Global deck models

7.1.14.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.14.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.14.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.15 Ninjas

7.1.15.1 Global deck models

7.1.15.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.15.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.15.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.16 Phoenix

7.1.16.1 Global deck models

7.1.16.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.16.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.16.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.17 Rona

7.1.17.1 Global deck models

7.1.17.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.17.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.17.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.18 Sacrifice

7.1.18.1 Global deck models

7.1.18.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.18.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.18.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.19 Scapeshift

7.1.19.1 Global deck models

7.1.19.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.19.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.19.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.20 Self Bounce

7.1.20.1 Global deck models

7.1.20.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.20.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.20.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.21 Spirits

7.1.21.1 Global deck models

7.1.21.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.21.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.21.2.2 Sideboard

7.1.22 Tokens

7.1.22.1 Global deck models

7.1.22.2 Separate model for main and side

7.1.22.2.1 Mainboard
7.1.22.2.2 Sideboard

7.2 Two weeks Data Model best deck prediction

7.2.1 B Demon : Demons

7.2.1.1 Global deck models

7.2.1.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.1.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.1.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.2 Control

7.2.2.1 Global deck models

7.2.2.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.2.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.2.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.3 Enigmatic Incarnation

7.2.3.1 Global deck models

7.2.3.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.3.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.3.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.4 Ensoul

7.2.4.1 Global deck models

7.2.4.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.4.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.4.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.5 Greasefang

7.2.5.1 Global deck models

7.2.5.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.5.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.5.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.6 GW Company

7.2.6.1 Global deck models

7.2.6.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.6.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.6.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.7 Hammer Time

7.2.7.1 Global deck models

7.2.7.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.7.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.7.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.8 Humans

7.2.8.1 Global deck models

7.2.8.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.8.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.8.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.9 Lotus Strings

7.2.9.1 Global deck models

7.2.9.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.9.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.9.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.10 Mono Green Devotion

7.2.10.1 Global deck models

7.2.10.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.10.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.10.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.11 Mono Red Aggro

7.2.11.1 Global deck models

7.2.11.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.11.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.11.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.12 Ninjas

7.2.12.1 Global deck models

7.2.12.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.12.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.12.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.13 Phoenix

7.2.13.1 Global deck models

7.2.13.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.13.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.13.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.14 Sacrifice

7.2.14.1 Global deck models

7.2.14.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.14.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.14.2.2 Sideboard

7.2.15 Self Bounce

7.2.15.1 Global deck models

7.2.15.2 Separate model for main and side

7.2.15.2.1 Mainboard
7.2.15.2.2 Sideboard

8 Base Archetype

This analysis attempts to use regression to determine the decks with the best performance inside archetype or base archetype.

A binomial regression is initially trained on a set of decks. In order to be included in this analysis the archetype must be present at least 50 times in the dataset.

In order to be considered a card must be included at least 25 times in either the main deck or the sideboards, one or the other being considered separately. In models comparing the number of copies of each card, when a number of copies is less than 25 it is grouped with an adjacent number of copies. For example, a card that is present 32 times in 1 copy 200 times in 2 copies, 15 times in 3 copies and 47 times in 4 copies would lead to the following result 1/2 : 232 and 3/4 : 62. The formulation 2-4 indicates that the numbers of copies 2, 3 and 4 have been grouped together. Be careful, this part leads to results that I’m not really sure of. The interpretation of the regression coefficients seems really questionable, particularly in relation to the collinearity problem and the very large number of variables with sometimes small sample sizes. I would therefore encourage you to be very careful.

A total of 6 quasibinomial regression models are created using the wins and losses of each deck:.

  • Two models using the deck as a whole (maindeck and sideboard)

    • Comparing for each card presence +1 vs absence 0.

    • Comparing each card count with a sufficient sample size 0 vs 1 vs 3-4 for example

  • Four separate models 2 for maindeck and 2 for sideboard

    • Comparing for each card presence +1 vs absence 0

    • Comparing each card count with a sufficient sample size 0 vs 1 vs 3-4 for example

These different models are then used to determine the 7 complete decks (maindeck and sideboard) with the highest probability of victory for each archetype (weeks are expressed in 2 last digits years.weeks of the year).

As well as the 7 maindecks and 7 sideboards with the highest probability of victory are presented for each archetype.Warning: this second part can lead to inconsistent combinations. It seemed useful if you want explore the maindecks and sides separately.

Table shows the top7 decks:

  • Firstly base cards (present in all decklist).

  • Variables cards are present as card name average number of cards[minimum; maximum number of cards]number of base cards* (if this card is also in base cards)

8.1 All Data Model best deck prediction

8.1.1 Azorius Control

8.1.1.1 Global deck models

8.1.1.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.1.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.1.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.2 Black Demons

8.1.2.1 Global deck models

8.1.2.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.2.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.2.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.3 Boros Hammer Time

8.1.3.1 Global deck models

8.1.3.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.3.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.3.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.4 Dimir Ninjas

8.1.4.1 Global deck models

8.1.4.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.4.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.4.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.5 Dimir Self Bounce

8.1.5.1 Global deck models

8.1.5.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.5.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.5.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.6 Enigmatic Incarnation

8.1.6.1 Global deck models

8.1.6.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.6.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.6.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.7 Esper Self Bounce

8.1.7.1 Global deck models

8.1.7.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.7.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.7.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.8 Golgari Food

8.1.8.1 Global deck models

8.1.8.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.8.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.8.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.9 Gruul Aggro

8.1.9.1 Global deck models

8.1.9.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.9.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.9.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.10 Izzet Creativity

8.1.10.1 Global deck models

8.1.10.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.10.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.10.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.11 Izzet Ensoul

8.1.11.1 Global deck models

8.1.11.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.11.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.11.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.12 Jund Sacrifice

8.1.12.1 Global deck models

8.1.12.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.12.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.12.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.13 Lotus Strings

8.1.13.1 Global deck models

8.1.13.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.13.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.13.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.14 Mardu Greasefang

8.1.14.1 Global deck models

8.1.14.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.14.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.14.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.15 Mono Green Devotion

8.1.15.1 Global deck models

8.1.15.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.15.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.15.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.16 Mono Red Aggro

8.1.16.1 Global deck models

8.1.16.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.16.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.16.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.17 Mono White Token Control

8.1.17.1 Global deck models

8.1.17.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.17.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.17.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.18 Niv To Light

8.1.18.1 Global deck models

8.1.18.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.18.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.18.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.19 Orzhov Greasefang

8.1.19.1 Global deck models

8.1.19.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.19.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.19.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.20 Phoenix

8.1.20.1 Global deck models

8.1.20.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.20.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.20.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.21 Rakdos Aggro

8.1.21.1 Global deck models

8.1.21.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.21.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.21.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.22 Rakdos Demons

8.1.22.1 Global deck models

8.1.22.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.22.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.22.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.23 Selesnya Angels

8.1.23.1 Global deck models

8.1.23.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.23.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.23.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.24 Selesnya Company

8.1.24.1 Global deck models

8.1.24.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.24.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.24.2.2 Sideboard

8.1.25 Spirits

8.1.25.1 Global deck models

8.1.25.2 Separate model for main and side

8.1.25.2.1 Mainboard
8.1.25.2.2 Sideboard

8.2 Two weeks Data Model best deck prediction

8.2.1 Azorius Control

8.2.1.1 Global deck models

8.2.1.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.1.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.1.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.2 Boros Hammer Time

8.2.2.1 Global deck models

8.2.2.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.2.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.2.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.3 Dimir Ninjas

8.2.3.1 Global deck models

8.2.3.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.3.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.3.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.4 Dimir Self Bounce

8.2.4.1 Global deck models

8.2.4.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.4.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.4.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.5 Enigmatic Incarnation

8.2.5.1 Global deck models

8.2.5.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.5.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.5.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.6 Gruul Aggro

8.2.6.1 Global deck models

8.2.6.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.6.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.6.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.7 Jund Sacrifice

8.2.7.1 Global deck models

8.2.7.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.7.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.7.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.8 Lotus Strings

8.2.8.1 Global deck models

8.2.8.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.8.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.8.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.9 Mardu Greasefang

8.2.9.1 Global deck models

8.2.9.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.9.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.9.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.10 Mono Green Devotion

8.2.10.1 Global deck models

8.2.10.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.10.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.10.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.11 Mono Red Aggro

8.2.11.1 Global deck models

8.2.11.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.11.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.11.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.12 Phoenix

8.2.12.1 Global deck models

8.2.12.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.12.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.12.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.13 Rakdos Aggro

8.2.13.1 Global deck models

8.2.13.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.13.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.13.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.14 Rakdos Demons

8.2.14.1 Global deck models

8.2.14.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.14.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.14.2.2 Sideboard

8.2.15 Selesnya Company

8.2.15.1 Global deck models

8.2.15.2 Separate model for main and side

8.2.15.2.1 Mainboard
8.2.15.2.2 Sideboard