3 Matchup matrix
This chapter focuses on the data for which we know the result of each match and the Archetype of the opponent.
In order to be included, an archetype must be represented more than 50 times in the dataset.
- Matrix considers the matches as a whole (for example, a 2-1 score counts as 1 game won).
Part one focus on Archetype (aggragated) and part two on base archetype (parser archetype).
They are built on the following model (additionnal information in tooltip) one tab for all data and one tab for 1 month data:
Summary of data.
Bar chart shows the presence of each archetype and base archetype, as well as their win rate and some additional information in tooltips.
The confidence interval graphs show the averages winrates (without miror matchs) and 95% confidence intervals (calculated using the Agresti-Coull method). The vertical red line represents the mean of the winrates and the dotted blue lines represent the mean of the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. - Top player 10 (top 10 lower CI winrate bound) average win rate and CI (A player need at least 20 rounds for Archetype and 10 for base archetype) result are show above error bar
A complete matrix with all the information.
Multiple table with win rate of cards per matchup (only valid deck and matchup with more than 10 games are presented) : the first concentrates on the aggregated maccro archetypes and the second presents the sub-archetypes. Each part is organised in the same way, repeated 2 times, one for the maindeck and one for the sideboard.
Base cards: These are the cards present in decks almost exclusively in a given number of copies (deck numbers without the most common count less than 10).
Side/Mainboard cards: Cards present in variable numbers in the decks The third part explores the notion of the best deck according to a given metagame using the winrates obtained using the complete games obtained on the data set and the presence of each archetype over time (weeks are expressed in 2 last digits years.weeks of the year).
In order to determine an expected number of victories 2 criteria are used the average winrate and the lower bounds of the confidence interval.Please note that this part is still under construction as some decks with too few matchups are included.
- All data : 31-03-2025 to 07-07-2025.
- Duration 14 weeks.
- Include meta : PostRingBan.
- Number of tournament : 231
- With a total of 23668 rounds of magic
- 519 different matchup for archetypes.
- 1817 different matchup for base archetypes.
- One month data : 02-06-2025 to 07-07-2025.
- Duration 5 weeks.
- Include meta : PostRingBan.
- Number of tournament : 74
- With a total of 2176 rounds of magic
- 403 different matchup for archetypes.
- 813 different matchup for base archetypes.
Plot below show presence of each archetype in the matrix
4 Archetype
For example, a score of 2-1 counts as 1 game won.
4.1 Matrix
4.2 CI plot
5 Base archetype
For example, a score of 2-1 counts as 1 game won.
5.1 Matrix
5.2 CI plot
6 Card winrate by matchup
only on valid deck and with matchup
6.1 Archetype
The cards making up the base of the deck are those who a specif number of copies is present in 99% of decks or whose copies are absent from less than 10 decks.
The cards making up the base of the deck are those who a specif number of copies is present in 99% of decks or whose copies are absent from less than 10 decks.
6.2 Base Archetype
The cards making up the base of the deck are those who a specif number of copies is present in 99% of decks or whose copies are absent from less than 10 decks.
The cards making up the base of the deck are those who a specif number of copies is present in 99% of decks or whose copies are absent from less than 10 decks.
7 Best deck
Attempt to multiply the win rate matrix (WR or CI lower bound) by the weekly presence of the decks in order to calculate it, then divide by the total number of decks in order to calculate an average expected winrate for a given field.
Only decks with a CI are considered.